On level one we can confidently predict your strokes gained total (outcome) will be fully made up of your strokes gained in driving, approach play, short game and putting. These models are read top to bottom and each area has the same structure, but I’ve just drawn one out to keep it clear and concise. Have a quick scan of the graphic below, then we’ll talk through each stage. If you need a quick recap on how strokes gained works check out this link. Don’t worry the following approach works for all of the above. The maths is the same, but some use the PGA database, others use scratch data as a strokes gained benchmark and some apps benchmark you against average players of your own ability. Each Tour and app producer has a slightly different way of calculating strokes gained. Again, I don’t think this has been done before, there may be some tweaks needed, but I feel it is useful to share how I think about optimising golfing performance.Īt the top, we have stroke average, or total strokes gained. The next stage is to systematically break down stroke average into layers that fully explain the level above.
The course and standard of play may change, but this variable really does predict success at every level of golf. Average less than 69.0 across the year and you’ll likely win the EuroPro, Challenge Tour, DP Tour, LET, LPGA or PGA Tour. This relationship between performance and score average still holds true on all major golf tours too. Red dots are real data from Shot Scope, black dots are fitted values across all handicaps (R2 = 0.994).Įssentially to become a lower handicap golfer you need to reduce your score average. Showing average score to par by handicap for players 36 to +4 handicaps. The graphic below shows how stroke average is related to handicap. So how does this apply to golf? Well, the key variable for golf performance is stroke average. What is the best outcome variable for golf? Before we jump back to golf, I must highlight this great article by Mickey Ferri, using this approach to explain how Usain Bolt outperformed the rest of the sprinting world, check it out if you want to learn more. This ability to explain and predict performance is one I love to share with students when lecturing at university. Both options work, it is then up to the athlete and coach to decide how they can make these adaptations in practice. The example above shows how a coach could sit down and work out what changes would be needed in stride length or stride frequency in order to reach 10m/s (righthand images).Īs you can see from the graphic, the coach could choose to increase stride length, or increase the stride frequency of the athlete. However, the real power in deterministic models is not in explaining performance, but rather in being able to predict and calculate what changes are needed to create your desired performance. Furthermore, if you know the outcome variable and one of the base variables you can calculate the missing piece.
If you know both of these base variables you can precisely work out an athlete’s average speed. Here we can see how average running speed can be fully explained by two variables: average stride length x average stride frequency.
#IMPROVING SHORT GAME GOLF FULL#
You can geek out on a full deterministic modelling review here but I’ve created a basic example below. This approach has proved incredibly useful in sport science and coaching. Each layer fully explains the layer above. Strictly speaking, a deterministic model is an analysis whereby a movement outcome can be fully explained by subsequent layers of mechanical variables. This isn’t going to make you a better golfer next week, rather, it is a tool to help you improve your golf game by making clearer and simpler decisions in the coming months and years.
#IMPROVING SHORT GAME GOLF HOW TO#
In part one We’ll take the concept of scoring and make the process of how to shoot lower scores as simple as possible. Part 1: A deterministic model for scoring
10 Pulling your golf improvement plan together.9.8 System 6 – Psychological development.9.7 System 5 – Physiological development.9.6 System 4 – Development of areas to become exceptional.9.5 System 3 – Developmental practices for weaknesses.9.3 System 1 – Reflection on playing performance.9.2 What systems should you have in place?.9 Part 3: Weekly systems & processes for excellence.8.7 Summary – The hidden performance cycle.8.5 Planning an effective strategy for golf improvement.8.4 Deploying skills on the golf course.8.2 Developing a golf improvement plan based on data.
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